On the other hand, if Erdogan wins the election, all bets are likely off for Turkey obtaining Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation fighter jet, even if his government relents on obstructing Sweden’s bid to join the NATO alliance, analysts said.įoreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has said the AKP government rejected Washington’s proposals to send the S-400 to Ukraine, and Congress is unlikely to reimburse Ankara for what US lawmakers see as, at best, the lapse in judgment in buying Russian air defenses. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) have held up major arms sales to Ankara in recent years.īut the opposition camp has stopped short of committing to the Biden administration’s main condition for receiving the F-35, namely, offshoring the Russian-made S-400 air defense system that Turkey obtained despite Washington’s warnings in 2019. Improving human rights at home while ending Turkey's delay of Sweden’s entry into NATO, both of which a Kilicdaroglu-led government is expected to do if elected, are likely to grease the wheels.Īrranging the release of jailed Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) leader Selahattin Demirtas and Turkish businessman and activist Osman Kavala would be key first steps by which Kilicdaroglu could soften resistance in the halls of the US Congress, where lawmakers led by Sen. “At least we will have a new opportunity for real dialogue, which has not taken place at all in the past few years,” Pierini said.īut exactly how a CHP-led government would rejoin the F-35 program and advance Washington’s stalled $20 billion proposal to overhaul Ankara’s F-16 fleet remains uncertain. Regardless of the limitations - or perhaps because of them - Western leaders are likely to welcome the CHP candidate with open arms should his party win the election, analysts said, especially given Turkey’s renewed strategic importance to NATO amid the war in Ukraine. “Turkey is, in a way, stuck between its natural economic anchor, Europe … and to a smaller extent the US, and this tragic Russian chessboard, where it has locked itself in many ways with all the constraints that Russia can impose on Turkey,” Marc Pierini, former EU ambassador to Turkey, said during an Al-Monitor webinar on the elections on Monday. Kilicdaroglu has already said he will maintain relations with Moscow should his coalition be elected, reinforcing assessments that Turkey’s once binary alignment with the West is likely to remain a relic of the Cold War. Turkey faces a widening foreign trade deficit, and Putin has threatened to turn the screws on Ankara’s economy before. Russian President Vladimir Putin said in April the two countries reached $62 billion in total trade in 2022, according to Russian state media, in contrast to $33.8 billion with the United States for the same year. Russia has significantly expanded its economic ties with Turkey since the war in Ukraine. ![]() Yet Turkey’s economic vulnerability, seen most urgently in the volatility of the lira, makes that a tall order, experts said. Kilicdaroglu told The Wall Street Journal in an interview published Tuesday that if elected, his government would comply with the West's sanctions on Russia while maintaining Russia's investments in Turkey. Kilicdaroglu’s camp has said that if elected, the new government will rejoin the US-led F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program and push ahead on Washington’s planned $20 billion upgrade of Turkey’s F-16 fleet, all while re-engaging the European Union and furthering dialogue with Greece over the status of disputed islands in the Aegean.Īn electoral win by the opposition would also likely mean an end to Erdogan’s trademark tactics of playing Russia and the West off each other in pursuit of modest gains.īut the contest between Erdogan and his challenger remains a toss-up, and even if the opposition wins, a new government is likely to prioritize restoring faith in Turkey’s economy and domestic institutions before carving a bold new path in foreign policy. The opposition coalition led by 74-year-old economist Kemal Kilicdaroglu has vowed to restore Turkey’s standing on the world stage in repudiation of Erdogan’s brash approach to the West and Turkey’s neighbors. ![]() The emergence of a credible challenger to the two-decade rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has raised a glimmer of hope in Washington for a potential revival of a pro-NATO foreign policy in Ankara and a return to Turkey’s democratic norms.
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